
Some people devote themselves to model airplanes. Others prefer model trains. Alan Abramowitz builds election models — formulas that use data, economic and otherwise, to predict the outcomes of presidential political contests.
In August, the Emory University political scientist took President Barack Obama’s approval rating and stirred in the second-quarter gross domestic product. Over this, he sprinkled the “time for change” factor — eight years of White House rule by Democrats.
“Basically, you lose the advantage of incumbency that you had in the previous election,” Abramowitz said. “Put that all together and you came out with a modest Republican advantage.”
But instead of giving a late summer nod to Donald Trump, Abramowitz disavowed his own numbers and forecast a November victory by former secretary of state Hillary Clinton. His model, he decided, was predicated on a mainstream candidate who was running a competent campaign.
“It seemed to me that [Trump] didn’t satisfy either one of those conditions,” Abramowitz said. In his own defense, the academic noted that his model was intended to predict the national popular vote – not Electoral College balloting.
“As it turned out, [Trump] did under-perform – because Clinton is going to end up winning the popular vote by about one percentage point,” Abramowitz said.
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Article source: http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2016/11/12/a-presidential-campaign-that-turned-on-what-we-refused-to-see/